At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward islands.
If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.